Round table: the specifics of the visual novel market for the Web
The visual novel market is diverse. There are applications with storefronts, there is a large segment of horror and no less large — short stories "for adults". But within the framework of the current round table, we decided to dive into such a niche as visual novels for web platforms. Our experts and guides in this niche were representatives of Dats Games, Arcanum Games and Yandex Games.
Sensuality (Arcanum Games)
What is going on in the niche of visual novels for the web in general?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
If we talk specifically about visual novels on the web, then at the moment we do not see any major players, and there are still few commercially oriented ones.
But we see that the number of free-to-play novels is gradually increasing on the sites of browser games. We can say that the niche is just being formed.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
As in any other niche, it has its own permanent leaders and a huge cemetery. New projects are coming out, mostly not very successful ones. The genre is complex.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
The genre is complex and specific, it's not easy to come up with something new. Most likely, interactive novels will develop towards meta, which will somehow complement the stories and make the gameplay more complex and multifaceted, without destroying the special atmosphere of the genre itself.
Nikita Bokarev, Head of Business Development at Yandex Games
Unlike most games, creating content for short stories requires a different approach: you can involve creators of famous comics, writers, illustrators and people of other creative fields in projects. For us, visual novels are another promising type of content, which, in my opinion, has not yet fully revealed its potential in the Russian Federation. There are successful examples and successful experiments on the market. We will monitor the development of this category and, if possible, contribute.
How much is the visual novel market on the web different from the visual novel market on mobile and PC?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
Browser-based novels mostly inherit the mobile market: audience, settings, mechanics and freeplay monetization. On PC, the audience is completely different, although there are intersections. It is narrower and has its own requirements.
Browser–based visual novels correspond to the modern lifestyle as much as possible - reading on vacation, on the subway, on a walk. Immersion is less than on 4K TVs on a cozy sofa, but people today have few opportunities for such immersion, society is more informative. As for our stories, they are always with you — in your pocket, on your tablet, on your PC – wherever there are browsers. You don't even need to install anything.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
On the web, players are not willing to pay the same amount as they pay on mobile. On mobile, in general, the retention is higher. On PC, visual novels have premium monetization. I think that because of this, the situation with these genres is even worse there than on the web.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
On mobile, players are generally more loyal, but it is more difficult and more expensive to develop and promote the game. This is a relatively new genre on the web, but there is already a lot of competition, so it's not easy to keep a player in the game for a long time. It is even more difficult to get his loyalty so that he wants to return to the game again, so the creators of interactive novels have something to work on here.
Nikita Bokarev, Head of Business Development at Yandex Games
In terms of consumption of this type of content, there is essentially no difference between a web and an application. But there is a difference in monetization − in the application, such content is mostly available either for money for a specific novel, or by subscription model. This type of content is available for free on the web, but includes advertising monetization, which the user can disable if desired.
Who is the main audience of the genre and which stories are most popular?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
The type of players are expressionists (classified by GameRefiner). These are those who like to express their individuality through gameplay: decoration, design, role-playing and storytelling. These players like to experience emotions, delving deeply into stories and taking on the roles of various characters.
In our browser—based novels, the main audience is girls aged 16-35, which, in general, intersects with the target audience of novels on mobile. We are also currently experimenting with stories for a male audience to assess their level of engagement.
Popular stories in short stories correlate with other media aimed at this audience – urban fantasy, palace intrigues, dystopia, school, and so on. However, I would not chase after common genres, but look for something unique, since the audience is often sophisticated and well-read, whether it be books or other short stories.
A good story works not because of, but even sometimes in spite of, the setting. Trends can change, but craftsmanship shouldn't.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
If we take the bulk, then the target group is women and men in a percentage ratio of 70/30 aged from 12 to 40 years. I will keep silent about the plots.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
Genres depend on the audience, but almost all players like it when there are romantic scenes in the story and the opportunity to develop a relationship with a character they like.
Speaking of the Russian market, what is the total audience of the segment on the web?
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
It's hard to say, we didn't count. I think there are at least 1.5 million players.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
This is still a new area for us, but we are as much as Ivan has voiced, and we expect to attract.
What is the peak user reach of a hit in this niche in Russia? Which numbers, in turn, are considered acceptable?
Arcanum Games
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
There was a project on Yandex Games that 1.5 million players played.
How much can a visual novel earn per month in Russia?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
There are many factors depending on traffic, its payback, retention, duration of episodes and their number, and finally, the LTV of the player. If you place a novel on several sites, gather a community, and do not forget to release new episodes, then you can really reach about a thousand dollars a month on organic. Paid traffic is already making X's in revenue, expanding the community, which is the main asset, but we are still in the process of testing various advertising channels and will not name exact figures.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
If not divided into platforms, then up to 300 thousand dollars per month. That's the most I've seen.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
It should be borne in mind here that this is a specific, niche genre that has its own small but loyal audience.
What is the main way of monetization?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
In the dating segment, the main motivation of the player is the desire to get closer to a romantic character. Everything that brings the player closer to this goal is monetized through the purchase of hard currency, which is spent on premium choices (for example, going on a date or doing something atypical for the character), cosmetics (for example, wearing an amazing dress that will attract the attention of the character) and so on. There is also a softer option — viewing ads, which can provide either a little hard currency or open up a specific choice.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
Subscriptions + inaps + advertising.
Nikita Bokarev, Head of Business Development at Yandex Games
On Yandex Games, monetization of content, including short stories, is carried out through advertising or in-game purchases.
The genre is developing. And individually on each of the platforms. What genres and types of visual novels would you mention? And which of them best retain the user?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
On PC and consoles, novels perform well if the ending depends on the choice (with the possibility of replay and dead-end branches in case of unsuccessful decisions). Players want to go through them to experience all the ranges of emotions inherent in the plot.
There is no clear division by genre on mobile, they mostly operate with settings and try to surprise with unusual role-playing mechanics.
Romantic novels are best kept, in which there is a significant choice, interesting characters, simple role–playing elements (for example, the mechanics of the characters' sympathies for the player) and a plot in the young adult genre, and the main goal of the player is to get closer to a romantic character (love interest). It is also important to keep the audience interested between episodes so that the game resembles an exciting series when players are looking forward to new episodes.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
Rather, the genre's graveyard is getting bigger. Interactive novels hold the user best when there are choices in the story that affect the plot. In this case, the player wants to replay the story several times to open all the endings.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
To keep the player engaged, the story must first of all be interesting and keep the reader on their toes. To do this, the choices must be complex and ambiguous, really affect the plot and, ultimately, determine the ending of the story. Players will go through such novels several times to get the desired ending, save an important character, etc. The genre in this case is not so important. It can be fantasy, mysticism, and sci-fi.
It is believed that visual novels are one of the cheapest game genres in production. Is this fair if we are talking about the web?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
Visual novels are content—dependent games. The cost of developing a competitive novel can compete with many genres, especially given the audience's demands on the quality and volume of content.
However, visual novels have one of the lowest barriers to entry into the genre, which is true. This is a great opportunity for talented authors and artists to showcase themselves to the world in the form of a game that is more interactive than just static images or linear text. This fits well with the features of browser-based game platforms, where the content requirements may be lower.
Given that the basis of the novel is text and images, it may seem that using artificial intelligence can significantly reduce the cost of development or create it with minimal costs. This is true. However, the question arises whether such a novel will arouse interest among an audience accustomed to stories from professional screenwriters and talented artists.
We do not use AI for production (only for concepts and references), because the style of our artists and writers, their creative vision, is important to us. A painting without an author loses its value, even if it looks good. Attention to detail is important to us when the background location is created with meaning, and various references, Easter eggs and cool narrative solutions can be found in it. In response, our community pleases us with positive feedback, fan art and support. But we have come a long way to this.
So using AI for novice developers is a good opportunity to try yourself in this niche.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
Rather, it is one of the most expensive and difficult genres when it comes to indie. There is almost no cor-loop in short stories (that's why they try to cross them with other genres), so the developer becomes a victim of content. The developer also becomes a victim of artistic localization.
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
The main problem with developing visual novels, which affects its cost, is that it's not enough for you to just release the game. To keep players interested, the developer must regularly release new content (at least once a week). This is a constant cost for artists and narrators. If the game is released not only in Russian, it also requires constant expenses for literate, literary localization, preferably from a native speaker of the language into which you are translating.
Nikita Bokarev, Head of Business Development at Yandex Games
It depends from which point of view: technically, it is much easier to assemble a visual novel than to create a game with a large number of game mechanics, but to create a visual novel requires a high-quality creative texture, without which users simply cannot be of great interest.
How much does it cost to create a visual novel on average today? What is the main cost item for their development?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
On mobile, saving money, we managed to meet the budget of 15 thousand dollars for one story (12 episodes), which is about 300 minutes of gameplay, not counting the replay of other plot branches. The main expense item is art characters and locations. For the web, the budget of a new novel (the first few episodes) I would limit it to a thousand or two thousand dollars.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
It depends on the country of production. The cost of developing the same game for different developers may differ by zeros at the end of the figure. Indie can do with an artist + programmer + writer. However, there is a very high probability that they will find a place in the cemetery of projects.
Is there an average ROAS by genre? How guaranteed is the payback here in general?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
Currently, we are in the testing stage of purchasing traffic, and the payback strongly depends on the channels and the site of browser games itself. On small volumes, on average, our ROAS is 100%-110%, which is acceptable for us, since we recoup the costs aimed at expanding the community, which is subsequently monetized through the release of new episodes. In the future, we plan to increase performance by optimizing campaigns and experimenting with creatives.
As for the payback guarantee, it is important to understand that there is a significant creative factor in short stories. You can do everything "right", but at the same time not interest the audience. Therefore, as in any creative projects, there are no guarantees. However, there are features of the genre, observing which can bring success closer.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
There are no payback guarantees in any genre. I don't know the average ROAS by genre.
How competitive is the market for visual novels on the web?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
Competition is still low. There are few projects, and even fewer good projects. This is a great opportunity for creative teams or novice developers to monetize their games.
We realize that with the advent of new projects, competition will increase. In this regard, we have developed a convenient framework and engine for quickly launching new stories from external teams. Currently, we are actively cooperating with well-known comic book authors and writers, adapting their works to the format of visual novels. Our strategy includes the development of technical solutions and marketing in order to fully switch to the publication of visual novels.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
There is still no such competition on the web as in mobile. Strong players are in no hurry to access the web, as they do not see the potential in this format. The main target audience of the web format is schoolchildren. This is a fairly immature audience for serious short stories. However, in the web format, I see great potential for the novel genre, because today's student is tomorrow's student.
What is the most important thing in short stories?
Evgeny Protasov, General Producer of Dats Games
Deep characters — the player will have to live a short life with these characters. They should be bright and interesting personalities in their own way, who reveal themselves gradually, like a puzzle.
A thoughtful and addictive plot — the player needs to be guided through the story, not letting the interest subside. The best way to do this is to alternate between different emotions, creating ups and downs.
The ability to influence the narrative (the so—called "agency", Player's Agency) - it is the feeling of the consequences of elections that distinguishes interactive visual novels from classical literature. It's not just a story, it's your story, and everything that happens to you is already your responsibility.
Ivan Grigoriev, COO Arcanum Games
Plot, dialogues, interactivity!
Olga Danilova, CPO Arcanum Games
The most important thing is, of course, a well—told story that catches the player from the very beginning and does not let go until the last chapter, and after passing it makes you want to re-read it again, but with a different ending. Correctly written characters are of great importance. The more complex and ambiguous the character, the more willing the player is to return to the story in order to "solve" it. And, of course, well-thought-out choices are very important. They make the plot more dynamic and add interactivity — the player understands that he determines where the plot will develop.
Art is also of great importance, because it visualizes the story and creates the right atmosphere, and together with music and sound accompaniment makes the story recognizable and unique.
